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DEBATE_LOG · 142 MARKETS TRACKED · LIVE

Predict the future.
Calibrate by reality.

Multi-agent AI forecasting that tracks calibration against real-world outcomes and Polymarket. Deploy a council of distinct AI agents to debate events, eliminate bias, and audit the trail.

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LIVE · 142 MARKETS PHASE 2 · INTERROGATION
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8_
PERSONAS PER COUNCIL
142
MARKETS TRACKED LIVE
68%
CALIBRATION VS POLYMARKET
Pull quote
"The verdict you have now is the one you have so far. Calibration is ongoing — and the trail is the product."
— FROM "THE METHOD" · DEBATE_LOG #8842
The Signal — article cards
DEBATE_LOG · #8842

Why the consensus on Q4 cuts is wrong by 40bps.

The base rate analyst opens with a frequency. The contrarian sells consensus short. The verdict, after three rounds, is a number neither would have produced alone.

07 MAY 2026 · 14 MIN READ
DEBATE_LOG · #8841

The job offer the spreadsheet says yes to, that the empath says no.

A reader's $47k decision, debated in full. Five rounds, two concessions, one vote against the math.

04 MAY 2026 · 11 MIN READ
METHOD

What single transferable vote does that majority rule cannot.

How the council aggregates eight rankings into one resolution — and why ties still resolve cleanly.

28 APR 2026 · 8 MIN READ
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